October 2026 · Issue #8
Rates are up again. Here’s what 4.60% means
On Tuesday afternoon the Reserve Bank lifted the cash rate by a quarter of a per cent to 4.60%. The decision was unanimous. It’s the fourth rise this year and takes the cash rate to its highest level since late 2011. If you’ve got a variable home loan, here’s what it means in plain numbers — and what to watch from here.
The cash rate in 2026
| Start of the year | 3.60% |
| 3 February | 3.85% |
| 17 March | 4.10% |
| 5 May | 4.35% |
| June and August meetings | Held |
| 29 September | 4.60% |
Why the RBA moved
The Board’s statement points to energy prices running well above what it assumed in August as the Middle East conflict has broadened, along with capacity pressures at home and short-term inflation expectations that remain elevated. In its own words: “Inflation remains elevated and some of the upside risks flagged in August are materialising.”
A day later, the ABS’s monthly inflation figure for August came in at 4.0% over the year, up from 3.5% in July, with fuel up 14.8% in the month. Trimmed-mean inflation — the measure the RBA watches most closely — held at 3.6% for a third month in a row.
What it adds to a mortgage
These are Canstar’s figures for an owner-occupier paying principal and interest with 25 years left on the loan, assuming the rise is passed on in full.
Extra per month · this rise · all four rises in 2026
| $600,000 loan | +$91 · +$364 |
| $750,000 loan | +$114 · +$454 |
| $1,000,000 loan | +$152 · +$606 |
Put another way, a household with $750,000 owing is now paying roughly $450 a month more than it was at New Year. That’s real money, and it’s part of why buyers are taking their time this spring — more on that in this issue’s market story.
Four rises this year add up to about $450 a month on a $750,000 loan. Your lender will tell you your own figure and the date it starts.
What the banks are doing
At the time of writing, Macquarie was the first major lender to confirm it will pass the rise on in full, from 15 October. After the March rise, the big four followed within about ten days, so expect a letter or email from your lender with your own date. Fixed rates were already moving before the decision: in the week to 22 September, ten lenders lifted 266 fixed rates by an average of 0.33 percentage points.
What to watch next
The next RBA decision is on Tuesday 3 November — Melbourne Cup Day. Before then, the full September-quarter inflation figures land on 28 October and will carry a lot of weight. The big banks’ economists are split: ANZ is forecasting one more rise, to 4.85%, in November, while CBA, Westpac and NAB see 4.60% as the peak.
The Redlands read
What it means for you
If you’ve got a mortgage, your lender will confirm your new repayment and when it starts. On a variable rate it costs nothing to ask what rate they’re offering new customers, and a broker can compare the market for you.
If you’re a saver, deposit rates generally follow the cash rate, so it’s worth checking what your account is paying.
If you’re buying, have your pre-approval re-checked at the new rate before you make an offer or register to bid.
General information only — not financial advice. Please speak to your lender or broker about your own loan.
Wondering how this is playing out on your street?
Get a straight number
Greg Leigh — local Redlands specialist, Queensland Sotheby’s International Realty. Published 30 September 2026.
Sources: Reserve Bank of Australia, 29 September 2026; ABS monthly CPI, August 2026; Canstar repayment figures via ABC News; Yahoo Finance (Macquarie); Mortgage Professional Australia (fixed rates); SBS News (economists’ forecasts); RBA meeting schedule.