October 2026 · Issue #8
The market, straight: more choice for buyers, a long runway for owners
I’d rather give you the numbers as they are than dress them up. The market has turned. Brisbane values have now eased for three months in a row, homes are taking longer to sell, and buyers have more choice than they’ve had in a couple of years. That’s the cold, hard part. The other part — the one that rarely makes the headlines — is how much ground Brisbane and the Redlands gained before this started.
Brisbane · Cotality home value index to 31 August 2026
| August | −1.0% |
| Past three months | −2.7% |
| Below the May 2026 peak | −2.7% |
| Past twelve months | +10.8% |
| Median dwelling value | $1,080,142 |
Cotality’s September figures are due out on 1 October.
The signs that buyers have more say
Every measure of who holds the negotiating power is pointing the same way. Brisbane had 20,374 homes listed for sale in August, 26.5% more than a year earlier (SQM Research). Brisbane’s preliminary auction clearance rate last weekend was 42.6%, and it has been under 50% in 18 of the past 19 weeks (Cotality). Across the country, the typical home now takes 39 days to sell, up from 28 a year ago, and the average discount from the first asking price in the capitals has widened to 4.2% — the most since January 2023. In Brisbane, homes are taking about two weeks longer to sell than at the start of the year (PropTrack).
Cotality’s research director, Tim Lawless, summed it up: “Longer selling times, larger vendor discounting and persistently low auction clearance rates all point to a buyer’s market.”
The runway behind us
Here’s the context that matters if you already own. Even after three softer months, Brisbane values are still 10.8% higher than a year ago. In August, Cotality’s Gerard Burg noted that Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide “recorded exceptional growth over the past five years, giving them a more significant buffer.” Cotality’s own modelling shows Brisbane values could fall 20% and still be around where they were in August 2024. That’s a scenario, not a forecast — but it shows how much ground was gained.
The monthly falls are real. So are the gains of the past five years. Both belong in the same sentence.
Where the Redlands started from
Suburb figures lag the monthly index, so the latest local numbers cover the twelve months to June 2026 — before the Brisbane slowdown showed up. Treat them as where we started from, not where we are today.
Median house value · 12 months to June 2026
| Wellington Point | $1.38m · +12.2% |
| Cleveland | $1.28m · +7.6% |
| Thornlands | $1.23m · +17.1% |
| Redland Bay | $1.18m · +21.7% |
| Victoria Point | $1.11m · +12.1% |
| Capalaba | $1.09m · +18.3% |
Figures vary a little between data providers; these are Cotality’s, as published by Your Investment Property.
Rents are still firm
Rental vacancy in Brisbane was 0.9% in August, unchanged on July, and asking rents for houses were 9.0% higher than a year earlier (SQM Research). Locally, the median rent on new bonds in the June quarter was $800 a week for a four-bedroom house in Thornlands (4164), up 6.7% on a year earlier, and $700 for a three-bedroom house in Redland Bay and Victoria Point (4165), up 11.1% (Residential Tenancies Authority bond data).
What’s changed for buyers and investors
Two budgets changed the settings this year. The Queensland Budget in June extended the $30,000 First Home Owner Grant for new homes for another four years and made stamp duty relief for first-home buyers of new homes permanent. The federal Budget in May limits negative gearing to new builds and replaces the 50% capital gains discount with indexation, both from 1 July 2027. Property already held on budget night keeps its negative gearing, and the capital gains change applies only to gains made after July 2027 — I covered the detail in Issue #6.
Investors have been stepping back: new investor loans fell 8.6% in the June quarter, the biggest drop since 2022, while first-home-buyer lending was steady on a year earlier (ABS).
The Redlands read
Selling, buying or staying put
If you’re selling, price to what’s selling now, not to the peak. Buyers are comparing more homes than they were a year ago, and the first few weeks on the market count the most.
If you’re buying, you have more choice and more room to negotiate than at any time in the past couple of years. Have your finance re-checked at the new rate first.
If you’re staying put, nothing here changes what your home is to you. The monthly index moves; the price that counts is the one on the day you sell.
General information only — not financial, tax or legal advice.
Want to know where your place sits against the last sixty days of local sales, not a national headline?
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Greg Leigh — local Redlands specialist, Queensland Sotheby’s International Realty. Published 30 September 2026.
Sources: Cotality home value index, released 1 September 2026; SQM Research listings, August 2026; Cotality auction results via MacroBusiness; Cotality, 10 September 2026 (selling times, discounting); PropTrack via Mortgage Professional Australia; Cotality chart pack, August 2026; Cotality suburb data via Your Investment Property; SQM Research vacancy, August 2026; RTA bond data; Queensland Government; Budget 2026–27; ABS lending indicators.